Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, August 2020

Economic indicators improved and trade began to recover; output and demand are still below pre-COVID-19 levels; recovery in the US, Brazil, and India is impaired by the ongoing public-health crisis.

Over July and August, the global economy stirred. Retail sales improved, manufacturing revived, and trade began to recover. The revived activity comes close on the heels of a punishing second quarter. Most pandemic restrictions were in their fullest form then, and most economies measured large contractions in GDP, including –9.5% in the United States and –15.0% in the eurozone (year-over-year). China experienced its contraction (–6.8%) in the first quarter, and has since returned to growth.

As restrictions are lifted, countries in diverse regions are joining China and other Asia–Pacific economies in recovery. Demand and output are still below marks achieved in 2019, but an awakening has clearly begun. It comes at a cost, however. In many places the public-health emergency has not receded, and the virus continues to spread. Virus levels are high and even accelerating in India, Brazil, and other populous Latin American countries, as well as in parts of the United States.

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Πηγή: mckinsey

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