Economic Conditions Snapshot, September 2019: McKinsey Global Survey results

Increasingly uneasy views of the global economy and its prospects

Respondents’ views are subdued on the current state of the global economy, and on their home economies in the months ahead. Trade conflicts and trade-policy changes remain the most commonly cited threats to growth.

In McKinsey’s latest survey on economic conditions, executives’ views on the current global economy and expectations of future global growth are less favorable than they have been in years.1 In sizing up their home economies, respondents are evenly split, with roughly one-half taking a positive or stable stance. Overall, trade conflicts and changes in trade policies remain the foremost concerns for global and domestic economic growth.

While respondents in emerging economies report sluggishness in the global economy and at home, they are more optimistic than their developed-economy counterparts about future global and domestic prospects. In India, a bulwark of positive sentiment over many past surveys, views have turned negative about current domestic conditions, although most expect improvement or a leveling out in the months ahead. By contrast, respondents in developed Asia–Pacific economies and in Latin America offer brighter views than in the previous survey about current conditions.2

Respondents’ perspectives on the current global economy have become more subdued over recent months. Seventy-four percent of respondents say global economic conditions are worse now than six months ago—the highest share since we began regularly asking in March 2012. The share of respondents saying the global economy is worse now than six months ago has increased over the past year (Exhibit 1).

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