Russia’s defense industry might not survive an invasion of Ukraine

Russian industry is already struggling with sanctions and export limits. An invasion of Ukraine could be disastrous for them – and, politically, might spell doom for Vladimir Putin’s regime.

KYIV: Russian troops on the Ukrainian borders of both Russia and its pliant ally, Belarus, still hover at the 100,000 mark. This is accompanied by a naval buildup in the Azov Sea where Russian vessels outnumber Ukrainian ships by a ratio of 4 to 1. While the Russian presence is understandably causing heartburn in Ukrainian circles, it’s also causing agita in a surprising place: inside Russia’s defense industry.

The most recent full-scale exhibition of Russian military hardware was at the Nov. 2021 Dubai Air Show, where the subject of whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would decide to have his troops mount an invasion was a popular one among the Russian delegation. This was the largest contingent of Russian defense industry representatives to ever attend this event, with a number of serious players attending in hopes of breaking through in the regional market.

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