The Reasonable Optimist

Germany’s GDP fell by more than half in 1945, when the end of World War II left a pile of bombed-out buildings and starving citizens.

No one a few years prior was predicting a 50% economic collapse, but it’s what happened.

Then came an equal surprise in the other direction: West Germany’s economy recovered all its lost ground and exceeded its pre-war GDP by 1950.

No one a few years prior was predicting an economy could fully rebuild itself in five years, but it’s what happened.

A lot of things work like that.

The ease of underestimating how bad things can be in the short run and how good they can be in the longer run is a leading cause of bad forecasts, bad decisions, and confused people. It’s common because it’s easier to go all in on either optimism or pessimism – having one foot on each side feels waffling.

But straddling both sides is usually the best stance.

So let me define what I call a reasonable optimist.

It has two parts.

 

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Πηγή: collaborativefund.com

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